Certainly, the world is not prepared for the consequences of such a historic event, which will probably alter it, negatively affecting agriculture with the climate conditions of the gonzo, forcing people to starve or fight. But, the problem may be even greater than the shortage of food, as we shall see.
However, it is comforting to know that the Blue Ocean is quite controversial within the scientific community. Some climate scientists believe that Arctic ice will be present beyond this century. We can only hope that they are right, because an Arctic without ice will undoubtedly wreak havoc of life on the planet.
However, it is worrisome to note that the prospects for sustainable sea ice do not look good.
Here’s why: Peter Wadhams (professor emeritus at the University of Cambridge), who is the main authority on the Arctic sea ice (Goodbye to Ice, Oxford University Press) was recently asked about the current state of the Arctic sea ice. in 2019; recorded on the TUC radio (live broadcasts on KALW / San Francisco and independent Internet radio)
Here are some excerpts from this interview: In the last 40 years, the loss of sea ice in the Arctic has progressed rapidly. For example, between 1976 and 1987, the thickness of sea ice in the Arctic decreased by 15% … in the 1990s, it decreased by 43% … and today 75% of sea ice disappeared. .. leading to a degradation of the albedo of sea ice, which reflects solar radiation in the space of 80 to 90% with sea ice, but conversely, without sea ice, absorbs 80 to 90% Solar radiation in the background dark water without ice where important dangers are hidden.
As a result, the Arctic has experienced “the greatest albedo transition on the planet.” (Wadhams) The consequences are unimaginably difficult. A bit like trying to calculate in advance what happens when you fall into an ontological burrow, or in other words, the unexpected!
Not only that, but the Arctic is already a greenhouse in the hemisphere. For example, samples of permafrost in Yukon, near the Dempster Highway, recorded temporary temperatures in April 2019, almost 2 ° C higher than in the last 10,000 years. (Source: CBC News, Arctic is the hottest in 10,000 years, suggests a study, April 12, 2019)
In this sense, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggests an upper limit, or railing, of 2 ° C of post-industrial temperature. If it is exceeded, the primary ecosystems essential for life can collapse.
In fact, apart from the Arctic, critical ecosystems are already beginning to degrade around the world, especially in the tropical moist forests of Puerto Rico and Mexico (which face severe temperature fluctuations of 2 ° C) where Surprisingly, arthropods almost disappear mass; as well as the documentation of more than 100 different Flying Insect Armageddon sites in Europe (probably caused by toxic chemicals) that register mass losses of 75% for a few decades, which characterizes an extinction event!
With regard to the Arctic sea ice scenario, a critical question is not addressed in public: what happens next?
What happens when all the sea ice is gone?
According to persistent weather expert Paul Beckwith, the Blue Ocean event loses the “refrigerator” effect, which means that “the water temperature is not established near the freezing point when there is no ice left.” to melt “(Source: Paul Beckwith, climate system scientist, University of Ottawa)
Subsequently, by default, Greenland will be the only major source of ice in the northern hemisphere. From now on, the “cold center” of the northern hemisphere will move to Greenland, no longer to the Arctic, probably from the North Pole to approximately 73 ° north latitude or central Greenland (Beckwith) … So what?
Unfortunately, this creates a new category of risks, since climatic conditions in the northern hemisphere depend on jet streams (20K to 39K feet above sea level), which depend on the “cold center” at the pole. North, interspersed with hot currents of tropical origin to generate jet stream of taste. If the “Cooling Center” moves, who knows for sure what will happen to critical aircraft?
The short answer may be that jet streams will go more often than ever. Of course, to a lesser extent.