He is one of the best-known thinkers The New Yorker has dubbed ‘The Dystopians’ in an excellent 2009 profile, along with James Howard Kunstler, another regular contributor to RI (archive). These theorists believe that modern society is heading towards a discordant and painful agitation.
He is best known for his 2011 book comparing the Soviet and American collapse (he believes the United States will be worse). He is a prolific author on a wide range of topics, and you can see his work by searching on Amazon.
He has many followers on the web and in Patreon, and we urge him to support him there, as the Russian Insider does.
His current project is to organize the production of boats from affordable homes to live. He lives on a boat himself.
If you have not yet discovered your work, take a look at your RI article archive. They are a real treasure, full of valuable information from both the United States and Russia and how they are related.
During the last 500 years, the European nations (Portugal, the Netherlands, Spain, Great Britain, France and, briefly, Germany) were able to plunder a large part of the planet by projecting their naval power abroad. As much of the world’s population lives along the coasts, and much of it trades with water, the armed ships that came suddenly out of nowhere were able to put the local populations at their mercy.
The navies could plunder, impose tribute, punish the disobedient, and then use that looting and tribute to build more ships, expanding the reach of their naval empires. This allowed a small region with few natural resources and few native advantages beyond extreme orneriness and a large number of communicable diseases to dominate the world for half a millennium.
The last heir of this imperial naval project is the United States, which with the new addition of air power and its large fleet of aircraft carriers and its huge network of military bases around the world, can supposedly impose Pax Americana around the world. Or, rather, he was able to do so, during the brief period between the collapse of the USSR and the rise of Russia and China as new world powers and their development of new anti-ship and anti-aircraft technologies. But now this imperial project is coming to an end.
Before the Soviet collapse, the US army. UU He generally did not dare to directly threaten those countries to which the USSR had extended its protection. However, by using its naval power to dominate shipping routes that transported crude oil, and insisting that oil be traded in US dollars, he was able to live beyond his means by issuing dollar-denominated debt instruments and forcing countries of Everyone to invest in them He imported what he wanted using borrowed money while exporting inflation, expropriating the savings of people around the world. In the process, the EE. UU They have accumulated absolutely staggering levels of national debt, beyond what was previously seen in absolute or relative terms. When this debt bomb finally explodes, will extend economic devastation well beyond the borders of the US UU And it will explode, once the petrodollar wealth bomb, imposed on the world through US naval and air superiority, ceases to function.
The new missile technology has made a naval empire cheap to overcome. Previously, to fight in a naval battle, it was necessary to have ships that surpassed those of the enemy in speed and artillery power. The Spanish Navy was sunk by the British Navy. More recently, this meant that only those countries whose industrial might coincided with that of the United States could ever dream of opposing it militarily. But this has now changed: the new Russian missiles can be launched from thousands of kilometres away, they are unstoppable, and it takes only one to sink a destroyer and only two to sink an aircraft carrier. The US Navy can now sink without having its own army.
Equally significant is the development of new Russian air defence capabilities: the S-300 and S-400 systems, which can seal the airspace of a country. Wherever these systems are deployed, as in Syria, US forces are forced to stay out of reach. With its rapidly evaporating naval and air superiority, all that the United States can use militarily is the use of great expeditionary forces, a politically unpleasant option that has proved ineffective in Iraq and Afghanistan. There is also the nuclear option, and while it is likely that its nuclear arsenal will not be neutralized in the short term, nuclear weapons are only useful as deterrents. Its special value is to prevent wars from escaping beyond a certain point, but that point is beyond the elimination of its global naval and air domain. Nuclear weapons are much worse than useless to increase one’s aggressive behaviour against a nuclear-armed opponent; invariably, it would be a suicidal move. What the United States now faces is essentially a financial problem of unpayable debt and a bankrupt wealth bomb, and it should be an incredibly obvious point that the outbreak of nuclear explosions anywhere in the world would not solve the problems of an empire that is in bankruptcy.
Events that point to great changes of time in the world often seem minor when viewed in isolation. The crossing of the Rubicon by Julio César was only a crossing of rivers; The Soviet and American troops that met and fraternized on the Elbe were, in relative terms, a minor event, nowhere near the scale of the siege of Leningrad, the Battle of Stalingrad, or the fall of Berlin. However, they pointed to a tectonic shift in the historical landscape. And maybe we have just witnessed something similar with the recent and pathetically small Battle of East Gouta in Syria, where the USA. UU They used a chemical weapons drill as a pretext to launch an equally fictitious attack on some airfields and buildings in Syria. The establishment of US foreign policy UU I wanted to show that it still matters and has a role to play, but what really happened was that they demonstrated that US naval and air power. UU I was almost completely on the sidelines.
Of course, all this is terrible news for the US military. UU And foreign policy establishments, as well as for US congressmen in whose districts military contractors operate or military bases are located. Obviously, this is also bad news for defence contractors, for military base personnel and for many others as well. It is also simply appalling news from the economic point of view since defence spending is the only effective means of economic stimulus for which the US government is politically capable. Obama’s “shovel-proof jobs,” if you remember, did nothing to prevent the dramatic fall in the labour participation rate, which is a euphemism for the inverse of the real unemployment rate. There is also the wonderful plan of throwing a lot of money at Elon Musk’s SpaceX (as they continue to buy rocket engines of vital importance to the Russians, who are currently discussing blocking their export to the US in retaliation for more US sanctions. UU.). In short, take away the defence stimulus and the US economy. UU It will produce a loud bang followed by a gradually decreasing whistling noise.
Needless to say, everyone involved will do everything possible to deny or hide for as long as possible the fact that US foreign policy and defence establishments have been neutralized. My prediction is that the naval and air empire of the United States will not fail because it will be defeated militarily, nor will it be dismantled once the news leaks that it is useless; instead, it will be forced to reduce its operations due to lack of funds. There may still be some hard knocks before he gives up, but most of what we will hear is a lot of whining. That’s how the USSR was; this is how the US will go UU as well.
Source: ES News-Front