Significant increase in the container turnover of the largest US ports, forecasts the analysts of Hackett Associates. According to the latest release of the monthly monitoring of the Global Port Tracker, the largest US ports – Los Angeles, Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle, Tacoma, New York / New Jersey, Hampton Road, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Houston, handled in January 2017 more than 1.67 million TE, which is 6.5% more than December 2016 and 12.5% more than January 2016. Analysts at Hackett Associates forecast that in February the container turnover of these ports will be 1.61 million TEU, which represent an increase of 4.2% yoy, while in March throughput is expected to reach 1.46 million TEU (+10.6% yoy), in April – 1.59 million TEU (+ 0.1% yoy), in May – 1.67 million TEU (+2.9% yoy), in June – 1.66 million TEU (+5.5% yoy) and in July – 1.71 million TEU (+5.2% yoy).
If these forecasts are confirmed, the container turnover of largest US ports for the first half of the year will grow by 7.4% yoy to 9.7 million TEU. Such growth rates are more than four times higher than last year’s increase of 1.6% yoy.
First of all, such dynamics are caused by the growth of import volumes. Hacket Assiciates estimates that import cargo will continue to grow dynamically in the coming months, despite the fact that Washington is discussing the introduction of customs duties and taxes, which is due to rising consumer spending and replenishment of retailers’ stocks in the run-up to the spring and summer seasons.
The report emphasizes that the possibility of introducing customs duties, withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the possible revision of the terms of the NAFTA *North American Free Trade Agreement) are serious risk factors. However, in spite of these fears, trade is growing.
According to Global Port Tracker, the volume of container imports through the largest US ports in 2016 grew by 3.2% to 18.8 million TEU.